Direxion Shares Exchange Traded Fund Trust is in the midst of volatile trading after split in the second week of September. On Wednesday morning the instrument, like the rest of the gold market, is being driven by one thing and one thing only.
The Federal Reserve’s outlook on its target interest rate in the US will be revealed later on today, and the gold market is betting that traders will flee to the yellow metal as a result of the market chaos in the wake of the statement. When markets get volatile money is supposed to flee to gold, but there’s reasons to think that may not happen this time around.
Gold market waits for Janet Yellen
The US dollar weakened ahead of the big reveal from the Fed, and the change in relative vale appears to have been at least partly responsible for the rise in the price of gold on Wednesday. At time of writing futures for December were selling for $1,116.90 per troy ounce, up 1.3 percent for the morning so far.
Direxion Shares Exchange Traded Fund Trust is supposed to triple the returns of a basket of gold miners, but the fund has faced its own technical problems lately. After a 1:10 split earlier this month trading has been volatile.
At time of writing shares in the ETF were selling for 3.08, up 15.79 percent for the morning so far.
Stuart Hoffman, chief economist of PNC Financial Services Group told CNBC “It is time for the FOMC to start bringing monetary policy slowly out of its ‘self-induced coma’ in response to much improved vital signs for the U.S. economy.”
A survey from the TV station found that 49 percent of economists questioned were looking for the Fed to raise rates this month.
Gold waits for Fed numbers
For Wednesday the only number that really matters is the target interest rate that the Fed reveals in its statement. If the central bank decides to keep rates the same for the time being, little effect will be seen. Wall Street, the same as after each other recent Fed reveal, will try to pick out key info to inform forecasts of a rate hike.
If, however, Janet Yellen and her team on the Fed board decide that now is the time to boost the target rate, chaos will ensue. No one is sure what kind of effect that might have on the world markets. Those with the most confident of outlooks all disagree with one another.
Archer Financial’s Blake Robbin reckons that “Gold will get a pop if the Fed keeps things unchanged.” After this morning’s jump in the Direxion Shares Exchange Traded Fund Trust that pop may already be priced in.
Wall Street doesn’t exactly expect Yellen and crew to tighten up this time around. Any gold jump might be short lived heading into the next major central bank meeting, or the next piece of key data from China.