The SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) is one of the easiest ways to invest in gold, but it’s also been one of the easiest ways to lose money in 2015. Shares in the ETF are down by 8 percent in the last three months, and market watchers are saying that traders may have to wait until 2017 to see a real bounce back in the price of gold.
Sandy Jadeja, head strategist at Signal Pro, told CNBC this week that he sees the stock market going strong until 2017. After that money will cycle out of a stock market that’s slowing down and return to gold. Prices are likely to fall lower before that happens, however, and that’s going to hurt those holding the SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) .
SPDR Gold Trust halts slide
Mr. Jadeja says that $945 per ounce is the key level that gold may have to hit before those with large exposure to stocks think about buying in once more.
“I would expect the equity markets to come off (in 2017), people coming back (to gold) from a sentiment point of view, thinking maybe gold prices are so low right now maybe it’s time to go back in and hedge on equities,” he told the financial news network.
His feeling is backed up by a recent statement from Goldman Sachs head of commodities Jeffrey Currie. Currie says that he sees gold breaking the $1,000 support level as the risk of a rate rise and the reality of low inflation sink in with those trading the metal.
In the coming weeks some of the biggest holders of gold, and of the SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) in particular, will reveal their trading of the yellow metal in the three months through June.
Hedge fund gold stocks in focus
John Paulson, one of the hedge fund managers most vocal on his love for gold, kept his holdings stable through the first quarter. When his filing for the June quarter of 2015 emerges, it will be interesting to see what he says about the metal.
Paulson has been supporting gold since he established his name in 2009 after seeing the financial crisis coming. He has one of the largest stakes in the SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) , and a decision to sell could rock the ETF even more than the recent losses in gold have.
Paulson had 10.23 million shares in the index at the end of March 2015. That’s a little less than 4.5 percent of the total outstanding float of the ETF. Today those shares have a value of $1.074B.
Paulson and the other gold bug hedge-funders, will be in focus for their Q3 filings with the SEC. Those filings will have to be made before August 14, according to the regulator.
If they are selling out of their positions and taking losses it may signal another run on gold, and the advent of the $945 price tag that Mr. Jadeja thinks is key for the gold market may be sooner rather than later.