United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) was, like the price of the liquid it tracks, down on Monday morning. The fall came on the back of several data releases, the most weighty of which was OPEC’s July output numbers. The group pumped more oil in July than in any month in its recent history.
Saudi Arabia is showing no taste for cutting supply in order to keep the price of oil up, and the result is falling prices across the market. The brewing economic slow down in China has added to demand worries and the two factors are conspiring to take money from those holding shares in the United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) .
Opec drives Oil prices lower
A Reuters survey, the results of which were released on Monday, showed that OPEC oil pumping in July stayed high despite the coming boost in supply from Iran. Iran plans to put 500,000 more barrels per day on the market as soon as sanctions against it are lifted.
The country’s oil minister Bijan Zanganeh says that it will boost the flow of oil to more than a million barrels within months of sanctions being lifted. US Crude is now trading at less than $50 per barrel, and the United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) is taking the hit.
The ETF was down by more than 1 percent for Monday trading at time of writing. In the last month the fund has lost more than 18 percent of its value, and it’s down more than 24 percent since the start of the year.
Betting on the United States Oil Fund LP (ETF)
Despite the rough market that appears to be ahead for oil, there are many traders still putting money behind the United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) . Volume on a normal day is well above 20 million shares, and for every seller there is a buyer.
Barclays oil researcher Miswin Mahesh told CNBC why he thinks that might be a good idea. Mr. Mahesh says that though there’s likely to be pressure on the price of oil in the short term, prices should return to $60 per share or more by the middle of 2016.
He says that WTI should reach $63 by the end of the second quarter of next year. On this morning’s market a barrel of West Texas oil was selling for $46.
At the end of June a drop in pumping outlook in Iraq and Brazil was supposed to bring gains to the market, but that promise was spoiled by the return of Iran to the global oil table.
Natixis analyst Abhishek Deshpande said in a June report that “Excess crude oil in the market will continue to rise all the way into early 2017.”
Seth Kleinman from Citi agrees. He says that “project cancellations and deferral and cut backs are setting the world up for tighter oil markets in the medium term (2017-19) unless the record Middle East oil rig count successfully translates into significantly higher production.”
Those betting on the United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) will need to hold on and wait for that tighter market in order to realize gains, at least in the minds of analysts.
The kind of surprise supply boosts that drove prices lower over the last year could appear again, however, making a bet on the ETF less than a sure thing.