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Gundlach says trouble could lie ahead

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DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach warned investors today that the financial crisis, which started in 2008, is far from over.

“For many Americans, it looks like the good times have finally arrived after seven miserable years that began with the financial crisis in 2008.” Gundlach told delegates at the eighth annual Inside ETFs conference in Fort Lauderdale.

But while acknowledging that there are many things to like about the U.S. economy in 2015, he warned that some assets like gold and junk bonds are indicating that trouble could lie ahead.

Central bankers and global markets are full of signals that aren’t making sense like nursery rhymes, said Jeffrey Gundlach.

 

QE won’t work in Europe

Gundlach also doubts that the European Central Bank’s recent foray into quantitative easing will prove successful. “The Europeans have decided to do quantitative easing, and I expect they’ll have very little success,” he said.

The euro has been on a bit of a rally in recent days as investors hope that some of the weaker partners like Greece and Spain may opt out of the single currency, but Gundlach doesn’t think they will. As a result, DoubleLine “loves the dollar” and has held all foreign bonds in dollar-denominated terms since 2011.

 

All that glitters is gold

So what does Gundlach like? Gold as a flight to quality instrument. He thinks that gold will move higher as the stress to the financial system from the repercussions of oil deflation takes hold.

“Gold does act as a safe haven, and it seems like gold is predicting trouble correctly,” he said. “I’m bullish on gold. I increased my position in gold a couple weeks ago.” He said.

 

One mans junk is another mans treasure

Junk bonds are also on his watchlist. Many junk bonds were overvalued one year ago, but are starting to look interesting now. Gundlach’s guess is that if investors wait they could become a lot more interesting.

Bank loans in the high-yield market are not that exposed to oil market turbulence,  “[loans] will not suffer as badly if oil decides to make a home at $50 a barrel.” He said.

Long-term, Gundlach says the biggest threat to markets is the amount of debt companies have gorged on in the low interest rate environment that the Fed has created. However, he believes that the full disruption probably won’t be felt for several years.

 

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