GoPro Inc will release its numbers for the three months through June after the market closes on July 21, and Monday morning saw lots of action in and out of the firm’s stock. A recent report says that the bear case won’t be beaten even if GoPro flies past Wall Street forecasts with its Q2 numbers.
Shares in GoPro were up by more than 5 percent at time of writing on Monday morning after the firm unveiled a new content licensing product. The portal will allow ad agencies to easily license footage uploaded to the firm’s video-sharing network.
Going short on GoPro
11,222,401 shares in GoPro were held short at the end of June, ahead of the less than 10m held short in the middle of last month. Those that think shares are set to lose their value have not been convinced by the firm’s recent product announcements. GoPro may be about to launch a drone, but that doesn’t mean the firm has guaranteed success ahead.
Pacific Crest Analyst Brad Erickson said that the response to the firm’s newest range of products has been “lukewarm.” Mr. Erikson thinks that GoPro will beat Wall Street with the numbers it posts on July 21, but he’s not so sure that the shorts will be convinced given the problems with the firm’s newer releases.
A “lackluster response to new products is unlikely to cause bears’ market saturation concerns to end” says Erikson. That likely goes for the firm’s content licensing system too, though the analyst published his report days before that was announced by GoPro.
Mr. Erikson said that the firm’s product “portfolio has enough momentum to carry upside versus Street expectations through to Q4, where the high-end refresh should drive a significant sequential uptick in volumes.”
The new products, which include the cheaper Hero Session, aren’t doing all that well by themselves, however. Given his review of inventory levels, Mr. Erikson reckons that “initial demand for the Session appears mild.”
GoPro sells content
GoPro has been selling itself as more than just a hardware business since it went public, and this morning’s launch is the latest in a line of attempts to develop the soft side of the company.
Charles Anderson of Dougherty & Co reckons that Getty’s image-licensing business is a good model to build an idea of GoPro’s new product on. “Privately-held Getty Images had roughly $900m in revenue in 2014, according to Moody’s. We believe it’s possible GoPro could eventually grow its licensing arm to be a similar size,” he wrote in a report on the move.
After the huge leap in value on Monday morning the firm is worth more than $8bn, while the firm’s P/E has hit more than 77.
A new market with an eventual $900m in revenue is not going to convince bears that now is the time to buy into GoPro . The value of the firm gained $100s of millions on the back of the announcement of a feature that may one day be worth less than $1bn in sales.
While sales of the firm’s new products falling short, and concerns about the demand for the next gen of GoPro Hero cameras bears are sure to avoid the firm heading into what might be a pop in earnings this time around, and wait to play the intra-quarter period at GoPro.