Goldman Sachs Group Inc isn’t bullish about the future of the gold market. Despite the massive falls in the value of the metal in recent days, the New York investment bank says that it sees prices falling further.
Jeffrey Currie, head of commodities at the bank, says that he sees gold testing, and breaking, the $1,000 support level. The Direxion Shares Exchange Traded Fund Trust was flat in Wednesday trading.
Gold has not sold for less than $1000 per ounce since the financial crisis hit in 2009. During the crisis many investors piled into the metal in order to save their cash from the chaos of the financial markets. Other traders, as always, piled into the metal hoping that the price would be driven up by that fear. They were right in the short term.
Goldman doesn’t like the look of Gold
Currie, who was speaking to Bloomberg on Tuesday, said “We think we are in a structural bear market, not only in gold, but across the commodity complex, as the individual commodity stories are reinforcing to one another, creating a negative feedback loop.”
One of the major reasons for gold buying in the last three years was the belief that Fed policies would cause the dollar to weaken. The specter of hyperinflation was brought up more than once during the quantitative easing program. That program has ended, and the dollar is getting stronger on the promise of a rate hike later on this year.
With “debasement risk starting to fade, the demand to use gold as a diversifying asset against the U.S. dollar becomes less and less important,” says Currie.
The lower demand for gold means that firms that mine the metal are getting hit, and the Direxion Shares Exchange Traded Fund Trust is getting hit as a result.
Currie has been calling for a fall in the price of gold since before the massive fall in the price began. In a July 8 report he put a twelve month target of $1,050 per ounce on the metal.
Gold still hurts
Mr. Currie said that gold could fall below $1,000, and the market is taking notice on Wednesday. The SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) was down by 0.47 percent at time of writing to $104.87.
The Direxion Shares Exchange Traded Fund Trust , which triples the return on a basket of gold-mining shares, was flat on today’s market.
Gold miners don’t trade on a one-to-one basis with the price of the metal and the leveraged nature of the Direxion Shares Exchange Traded Fund Trust makes a direct comparison to the price of gold less than useful in many cases.
Shares in the index have almost doubled in the last month, as traders pile in in the hopes of a strong rise in the future. With the Goldman Sachs call for gold at under $1000, new volatility may enter the market, and the major players will be looking to re-align their positions.