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BlackBerry Ltd (BBRY) (BB) Stock Could Drop 30% To $6: Credit Suisse

Blackberry ltd NASDAQ:BBRY

BlackBerry Ltd (NASDAQ:BBRY) (TSE:BB), which posted disappointing results for the Q1, has been given Underperform rating with a price target of $6 by Credit Suisse analyst Kulbinder Garcha, in a note issued on Wednesday. For the Q1, the Canadian firm posted weaker-than-expected numbers.

Blackberry ltd NASDAQ:BBRY

Estimates lowered

For the quarter, the firm missed the estimate, posting a loss of $0.05 per share on revenue of $658m. Operating loss for Q1 came in at $7m while Credit Suisse expected a loss of $4m. Garcha continues to “have reservations on their ability to ramp up software and operate more competitively, and expect the company to burn cash.” EPS estimate for BlackBerry has been lowered for FY16 and FY17 from -$0.17 to -$0.24 and from -$0.19 to -$0.29.

Software revenue for the firm is viewed “solid” by Garcha, but the analyst raised concern over the licensing revenues, which he believe could be “partly one time in nature.” The analyst noted that the underlying base business could have grown by around 20% year over year, which is a “modest rate at the best.”

BlackBerry could go for a “break up”

BlackBerry, recently, inked a deal with Cisco and one more client, which as per Garcha is “reassuring.” However, the analyst raised doubt on the “prospects,” seeing the firms “IP portfolio and the inherent volatility of these numbers.”

BlackBerry’s Services division, which was down 19% quarter over quarter, continues to witness “accelerated decline,” and Garcha believe the “headaches” for the Services to continue.

Garcha advices BlackBerry to consider a “break up,” seeing the challenges in the turnaround of the services and the hardware business. If BlackBerry exits the hardware business in FY16 and service segment in FY17, Garcha expects an NAV of $3.2bn or $6 per share, which is around 30% below the current market price.

Analysts unsure over firm’s turnaround plan

In a report on Tuesday, Canaccord Genuity’s Michael Walkley noted that software revenue was the bright spot for BlackBerry while Baird analyst William Power was discouraged by the weak device sales from the firm, which came in at 1.1m units compared to 1.4m expected. Power noted that though the revenue improved in North America year-over-year, other regions saw a sharp year-over-year and sequential decline.

Also, CIBC analyst, in a report on Tuesday, noted that below-expected numbers from BlackBerry suggest that the turnaround is not near. Also, it is too soon to conclude if the firm’s plan (software for service) could succeed.

On Wednesday, BlackBerry shares closed up 0.23% at $8.83, and year to date, the stock is almost 20%.

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Aman is MBA (Finance) with an experience on both marketing and Finance side. He has work as a Risk Analyst for AIR Worldwide, and is currently leading VeRa FinServ, a Financial Research firm. Favorite pastimes include watching science fiction movies, playing PC games and cricket.

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